2022 QZ273 and 2002 RZ12

Backward simulation

Mercury6 package by J.E.Chambers (1999) ``A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies''. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799. 

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 1

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Result

2023 SV69 and 2001 US116

 Backward integration based on nominal orbit performed with Mercury6 software

2015 EN80 and 2017 XP90

These two asteroids share a very similar orbit and they have a very similar absolute magnitude and size (assuming 10% albedo, their size is 1102 and 1180 meters respectively)

Orbital elements:  2015 EN80
   Perihelion 2021 Jun 24.35763 +/- 0.00111 TT =  8:34:58 (JD 2459389.85763)
Epoch 2022 Mar 23.0 TT = JDT 2459661.5                        Auto-Find
M  66.70829243 +/- 0.00027          (J2000 ecliptic)
n   0.24557395 +/- 5.89e-9          Peri.  282.14566 +/- 0.00019
a   2.52550274 +/- 4.04e-8          Node    98.81297 +/- 0.00006
e   0.1644376 +/- 1.73e-6           Incl.   16.06226 +/- 0.000033
P   4.01                   H 17.9   G  0.15   U  0.8
q 2.11021511 +/- 4.37e-6    Q 2.94079038 +/- 4.35e-6
From 46 observations 2005 Dec. 24-2022 Mar. 23; mean residual 0".33

Orbital elements:  2017 XP90
   Perihelion 2021 Jun 26.30182 +/- 0.00152 TT =  7:14:37 (JD 2459391.80182)
Epoch 2022 Jan  6.0 TT = JDT 2459585.5                        Auto-Find
M  47.57079914 +/- 0.00037          (J2000 ecliptic)
n   0.24559239 +/- 6.59e-9          Peri.  282.12973 +/- 0.00025
a   2.52537634 +/- 4.52e-8          Node    98.81216 +/- 0.000059
e   0.1644239 +/- 2.44e-6           Incl.   16.06218 +/- 0.000028
P   4.01                   H 17.8   G  0.15   U  0.9
q 2.11014391 +/- 6.17e-6    Q 2.94060878 +/- 6.12e-6
From 45 observations 2006 Jan. 23-2022 Jan. 6; mean residual 0".21 

Based on the nominal parameters, they might have a potential common origin:

421781 (2014 QG22) vs 53576 (2000 CS47)

These two asteroids are a potentially interesting couple.
I do not know if this couple is already known and if it is really a couple with a common origin.

Let's look at the JPL data, showing very similar orbital parameters:
421781 (2014 QG22)
Orbital Elements at Epoch 2457200.5 (2015-Jun-27.0) TDB
Reference: JPL 5 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)

Element	Value	Uncertainty (1-sigma)	Units
e	.1415490034245739	7.6497e-08
a	2.219666740174171	5.0262e-08	AU
q	1.905475125167845	1.6225e-07	AU
i	5.547751979163497	1.1933e-05	deg
node	270.894647775993	0.00023172	deg
peri	334.1685226014454	0.00025596	deg
M	170.5342535281013	0.00011344	deg
tp	2456628.311384753553 (2013-Dec-01.81138475)	0.00037629	JED
period	1207.897517520007 3.31	4.1027e-05 1.123e-07	d yr
n	.2980385295758646	1.0123e-08	deg/d
Q	2.533858355180498	5.7376e-08	AU

 Orbit Determination Parameters

# obs. used (total)      49      data-arc span      3697 days (10.12 yr)      first obs. used      2004-08-14      last obs. used      2014-09-28      planetary ephem.      DE431      SB-pert. ephem.      SB431-BIG16      condition code      0      fit RMS      .55494      data source      ORB      producer      Otto Matic      solution date      2015-Jan-08 13:35:22

Additional Information

Earth MOID = .893565 AU

T_jup = 3.631

53576 (2000 CS47)
Orbital Elements at Epoch 2457200.5 (2015-Jun-27.0) TDB
Reference: JPL 11 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)

Element	Value	Uncertainty (1-sigma)	Units
e	.1413172303277337	5.195e-08
a	2.219866104654218	1.5604e-08	AU
q	1.906160775046069	1.1284e-07	AU
i	5.548153406788004	6.1614e-06	deg
node	270.899183954788	6.9605e-05	deg
peri	334.2072656882382	7.5251e-05	deg
M	151.5995810376835	2.9164e-05	deg
tp	2456691.773809093385 (2014-Feb-03.27380909)	9.8063e-05	JED
period	1208.060256319952 3.31	1.2737e-05 3.487e-08	d yr
n	.2979983805581422	3.142e-09	deg/d
Q	2.533571434262367	1.7809e-08	AU

Orbit Determination Parameters

# obs. used (total)      610      data-arc span      7436 days (20.36 yr)      first obs. used      1994-07-08      last obs. used      2014-11-16      planetary ephem.      DE431      SB-pert. ephem.      SB431-BIG16      condition code      0      fit RMS      .49974      data source      ORB      producer      Otto Matic      solution date      2015-Mar-09 16:42:10

Additional Information

Earth MOID = .894238 AU

T_jup = 3.631

 I tried to run the Mercury simulator (BS2 integrator, timestep 1 day) with the nominal parameters, with this result (graph done with the R package)

Kind Regards,
Alessandro Odasso

2002 UP11 vs 2015 VF105

See update about this case:
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/mpml/conversations/messages/31516

=================================
2002 UP11 and 2015 VF105 have similar orbit parameters.
The uncertainty for 2015 VF105 is unknown and I do not find its observations.


Using the Mercury software, it seems that they had a relative close approach on May 8th, 2001 when their nominal relative distance and velocity were:

• distance 0.00147 AU
• velocity: ca 5 m/s

Maybe in the future, when further observations will be available, it will be possible to study them looking for a common origin

JPL Small-Body Database Browser:

(2002 UP11)

Classification: Mars-crossing Asteroid          SPK-ID: 3224224

[ Ephemeris | Orbit Diagram | Orbital Elements | Physical Parameters ]

[ show orbit diagram ]

Orbital Elements at Epoch 2457200.5 (2015-Jun-27.0) TDB Reference: JPL 2 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)  Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma)   Units  e .382955379120253 0.00010057 a 2.187589320416579 0.00042822 AU q 1.349840222857032 4.6502e-05 AU i 22.87063099452443 0.0044292 deg node 43.70403288617293 0.0014051 deg peri 62.82185003664876 0.00090087 deg M 293.5443079306065 0.40392 deg tp 2457418.660842947343 (2016-Jan-31.16084295) 1.39 JED period 1181.808525581734 3.24 0.34701 0.0009501 d yr n .3046178735449497 8.9443e-05 deg/d Q 3.025338417976127 0.0005922 AU

Orbit Determination Parameters    # obs. used (total)      17      data-arc span      49 days      first obs. used      2002-10-04      last obs. used      2002-11-22      planetary ephem.      DE431      SB-pert. ephem.      SB431-BIG16      condition code      6      fit RMS      .53879      data source      ORB      producer      Otto Matic      solution date      2014-Jun-13 03:11:31   Additional Information  Earth MOID = .485591 AU   T_jup = 3.482

(2015 VF105)

Classification: Mars-crossing Asteroid          SPK-ID: 3734494

[ Ephemeris | Orbit Diagram | Orbital Elements | Physical Parameters ]

[ show orbit diagram ]

Orbital Elements at Epoch 2457300.5 (2015-Oct-05.0) TDB Reference: E2015-VE1 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)  Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma)   Units  e 0.3831181 n/a a 2.1883016 n/a AU q 1.3499236 n/a AU i 22.88002 n/a deg node 43.69986 n/a deg peri 62.82823 n/a deg M 323.14568 n/a deg tp 2457421.5445051 (2016-Feb-03.04450510) n/a JED period 1182.3857240 3.24 n/a n/a d yr n 0.30446917 n/a deg/d Q 3.0266796 n/a AU

Orbit Determination Parameters    # obs. used (total)      21      data-arc span      62 days      first obs. used      2015-09-11      last obs. used      2015-11-12      # oppositions      1      two-body model      T      fit RMS      0.13      data source      MPC:mp1      producer      MPCW   Additional Information  T_jup = 3.482

Graph

Kind Regards,
Alessandro Odasso